Powell Butte Proves A Bellwether For Oregon, Crook County Elections

By Scott R. Cooper, Crook County Judge
Published In The Powell Butte View, December 2004
http://www.thepowellbutteview.com/

After each election, the county clerk produces a pile of statistics which become the official results of that election. Except when races are high profile, I doubt anybody other than the clerk and myself and a few reporters looks too closely at the pile. Spending some time with the pile, however, can be instructive. There is a lot of data about the political thoughts and habits of the individual communities that comprise Crook County.

This month, I am using this space to dig out and share that data as it relates to Powell Butte specifically, but also to the community as a whole.

The first thing the data says is that Republicans outperformed Democrats in the 2004 General Election in turning out voters. Republicans turned out 90.8 percent of their voters in Crook County, while Democrats were nearly even at 88.74 percent. Non-affiliated voters (also known as independents) trailed the major parties, turning out only 75.21 percent of their voters.

Independents who did somewhat better in Powell Butte (precinct 11) where they turned out 84.21 percent of the vote, the highest independent turnout of any of the county’s 17 precincts. Some 93.28 percent of Republicans turned out while 92.77 percent of Democrats turned out. Neither of those numbers set the record in this election for major-party turnout countywide.

There was a time in county history when turnout was an important indicator of where the county was likely to go. That shifted significantly in this election, however, with the Republicans having a decided electoral advantage.

Countywide, Republicans represent 45 percent of registered voters. Democrats account for 32 percent of registered voters and independents are just under 19 percent. (Another 3 percent of voters are spread among minor parties such as the Libertarian, Constitution, Pacific Green and other minor parties.) In Powell Butte, the numbers are: 57 percent Republican, 24 percent Democrat, 16 percent independent and 3 percent other.

"Countywide, Republicans represent 45 percent of registered voters. Democrats account for 32 percent of registered voters and independents are just under 19 percent."

Democrats outnumber Republicans in only 3 of 17 precincts.

Turning to races, Powell Butte voters pretty well followed the rest of the county in its decisions. Republicans carried every contested race except the race for U.S. Senator. In that race, Sen. Ron Wyden received 56 percent of the countywide vote, compared to just over 50 percent in Powell Butte.

In the Presidential race, George Bush got 67 percent of the vote countywide, compared to 73 percent of the vote in Powell Butte. John Kerry received 30 percent of the vote countywide, compared to 25 percent in Powell Butte.

In the race for Oregon Senate, which featured an open seat with no incumbents running, the Powell Butte roots of one candidate may have carried the day. Republican Doug Whitsett, currently a Klamath County resident included his Powell Butte upbringing in his campaign literature. He carried 71 percent of the vote in Powell Butte compared to 63 percent countywide. His opponent, Klamath County Democrat Ross Carroll received 21 percent of the votes in Powell Butte, compared to 29 percent countywide.

In the county commission race, incumbent Republican Mike McCabe easily defeated Powell Butte resident Wilson Culwell, running as a Democrat. McCabe won 68 percent of the Powell Butte vote, compared to 66 percent countywide. Culwell took 22 percent of the Powell Butte vote compared to 25 percent countywide.

The contested races for attorney general, secretary of state and state treasurer all featured Democratic incumbents running against lesser known Republican challengers. Somewhat surprisingly, both in the county and in Powell Butte, the challengers won, somewhat upsetting conventional wisdom that incumbent name recognition is unbeatable in lesser races. Despite Crook County roots, Attorney General Hardy Myers lost to Paul Connolly 41 percent to 49 percent countywide and 33 percent to 57 percent in Powell Butte. Secretary of State Bill Bradbury lost to Betsy Close 42-50 countywide and 34-58 in Powell Butte. State Treasurer Randall Edwards lost to Paul Caton 35-50 and 30-57 in Powell Butte.

Crook County turned out to be on the losing side, however, in all three races. All three incumbents lost in a majority of Oregon counties (Myers in 23, Bradbury in 19 and Edwards in 17). However, the popular votes gained statewide were sufficient to return them to office.

Turning to measures, Powell Butte mirrored the rest of the state and county, with the numbers looking like this:

M31: Postpone election when a candidate dies

Oregon: YES, 66 Crook County: YES, 60 Powell Butte, YES, 60

M32: Creates revenue stream for titling manufactured homes

Oregon: YES, 61 Crook County: YES, 53 Powell Butte, YES, 60

M33: Raises limit of marijuana allowed for medical purposes

Oregon: NO, 57 Crook County: NO, 66 Powell Butte, NO, 68

M34: Mandates management practices on state forests

Oregon: NO, 62 Crook County: NO, 72 Powell Butte, NO, 77

M35: Limits award of damages from malpractice claims

Oregon: YES, 51 Crook County: YES, 53 Powell Butte, YES, 62

M36: Establishes marriage is between one man and one woman

Oregon: YES, 57 County County: YES, 79 Powell Butte, YES, 76

M37: Requires compensation regulation reduces property value

Oregon: YES, 61 Crook County: YES, 79 Powell Butte, YES, 66

M:38 Abolish SAIF

Oregon: NO, 61 Crook County: NO, 52 Powell Butte, NO, 55

Two of the outcomes of voting on the measures are particularly notable, the votes on Measure 32 (mobile home titling) and Measure 34 (mandating state forest practices). For unknown reasons, Powell Butte voters felt more strongly than any other precinct in the county that a change is needed in how manufactured home are titled and paid for. Likewise, Powell Butte residents led all other precincts in the county in the number of voters saying “No” to imposition by ballot of management practices on state forests.

The last item on the ballot was the vote on establishing a countywide transient room tax. Powell Butte residents supported the idea with a 69 percent margin, compared to 61 percent countywide. That wasn’t, however, the largest margin in the county. That honor went to the residents of south Prineville, who approved the measure by 73 percent.

All in all, it was an interesting election, and the residents of Powell Butte proved rather conclusively that when it comes to determining public opinion, a pollster could do a lot worse than to set up headquarters in Powell Butte, Oregon.