Election '04: Where To From Here?

sBy Scott R. Cooper, Crook County Judge
published in the Central Oregonian, November 2004

Expect Paybacks And Rewards Now That The Electin's Over

The election of 2004 is over. The yard signs have started to disappear. A downtown window which just seven days ago was filled with political signs once again has a lonely “for rent” sign. Was it really only a week ago that the pollsters, pundits, ex-politicians and veteran observers of FOX and CNN and pundits seemed unanimously agreed that the aftermath of this election would bring doubt and chaos at a level seldom experienced in American history?

In fact, it didn’t. The President was re-elected with a majority of the electoral votes and the popular vote. John Kerry graciously conceded the morning after, and the President graciously accepted. By noon West Coast time, it was all over.

So now what? As we survey the political landscape in the aftermath of Nov. 3, 2004, what do the national election results mean for us in Crook County?

The President lost Oregon by just over 60,000 votes. Crook County delivered for George Bush, as did 28 of Oregon’s 36 counties, but the combined strength of rural Oregon’s vote wasn’t enough to offset the overwhelmingly pro-Kerry vote cast predominantly in Multnomah and Lane Counties. It remains now to be seen (to mix a metaphor) whether by backing the wrong horse, Oregon also cooked its goose!

An issue that looms large in the minds of counties across Oregon and across the West is the upcoming fight to reauthorize public law 106-393. That law, passed at the behest of Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden and Idaho Sen. Larry Craig distributes around $800 million annually to communities which, prior to the 1990s, received large amounts of revenue from timber severance taxes—revenue which primarily supported schools and roads. About half the revenue received through the legislation comes to Oregon. When Congress passed this legislation in 2000, the federal budget had a $236 billion surplus. Today, the situation looks much different, with the federal deficit bouncing around the $500 billion mark. It remains to be seen whether additional tax cuts favored by the President will provide sufficient stimulus to move the economy enough to put the federal budget back in the black. If they don’t, the fight to reauthorize spending that primarily benefits so called “blue states” may be doomed from the start. Failure to reauthorize the legislation would mean a potential loss of around $2.4 million annually for Crook County or about half of the county road budget, and it would result in a reduction of about $10 million to Oregon schools—at a time when the state budget outlook is already bleak.

Another issue on the minds of a newly energized conservative Congress is the possibility of pursuing a long-held dream of privatizing the Bonneville Power Administration. The fact that residents of the Northwest enjoy relatively inexpensive power, compared to (and many would argue at the expense of) the rest of the nation, already rankles. President Bush proposed privatizing BPA in his last budget submittal, and given the administration’s free-market approach to a national energy policy, there is every reason to believe he will continue to pursue this idea. That would be devastating to the Northwest economy, plagued as it is with continuing weak economic fundamentals. Low energy costs are one of the principle benefits every economic development professional in this state uses to sell Oregon. Take that away, and the state’s economy will likely take a further turndown, the effect of which would as always be magnified east of the Cascades.

Of course, no President has the ability on his own to do anything without a willing Congress, and the closely divided U.S. Congress may just be the salvation of the Northwest. One of the interesting outcomes of this election is that Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith remains the only West Coast Republican in the Senate. That leaves him in a powerful position to lobby the White House to both pursue certain policy objectives or to leave well enough alone. How the senator will choose to use what are, after all, a limited number of political chits, remains to be seen, but he is certainly in a position to get the White House on the phone when necessary. That’s not bad for Crook County. Senators, like presidents, have long memories, and Sen. Smith is unlikely to have forgotten that just two years ago this county returned him to Washington with a 73 percent margin.

Another figure not to be discounted in the upcoming Congress is Rep. Greg Walden. The only Republican congressman in Oregon, the representative has been quietly advancing through the ranks. Now an assistant “whip,” or party leader, he will return to the 109th Congress with even more seniority and more experience. Already, he is the deputy majority whip, which gives him access to congressional leadership and a strong voice in influencing what legislation gets heard (and what doesn’t.) He holds a coveted seat on the House Energy Committee, which would have say over any BPA-privatization proposal and he chairs the House Forest Resources Subcommittee, which likely will eventually consider the reauthorization of the county payments legislation. Highly popular in his district and not vulnerable to challenge, he isn’t going anywhere, and he has perfectly positioned himself to represent the issues of this district on the national stage. Look for more good things from his direction in the coming two years.

Overall, the election was a mixed bag for Oregon. Voters were just as divided in our state as they were throughout the country. We will no doubt pay for some of our decisions, just as we are hoping for rich rewards as a result of others. The only certainty we have going forward is that there will be another election for the House in two years, and the debate about presidential prospects for 2008 has already begun. The close margin between the presidential candidates this time, the small majorities enjoyed by the two political parties, and the fact that Oregon’s issues are likely to receive attention in the next four years will keep Oregon in play on the national stage. With that kind of attention comes risk, but there is also opportunity. Whether and how we use it, is the challenge for the rest of us.