The Only Thing We Have To Fear...

By Scott R. Cooper, Crook County Judge
Published in the Powell Butte View, April 2005

Answering the Question, 'Where Will All Those People Work?'

Between February 2000 and February 2005, 461,000 new jobs appeared in the United States, an increase of 3.4 percent. During the same five years, U.S. labor force grew by 4.1 percent, meaning that labor supply outstripped the ability of economy to create jobs by 0.7 percent.

Between February 2000 and February 2005, 17,551 new jobs appeared in Oregon, an increase of 1.0 percent. During the same five years, the Oregon labor force grew by 2.7 percent, meaning that labor supply outstripped the ability of the economy to create jobs by 1.6 percent.

Between February 2000 and February 2005, 10,286 new jobs appeared in the Bend Metropolitan Statistical area, an increase of 18.3 percent. During the same five years, the Bend labor force grew 17.8 percent, meaning that Bend’s employment base outperformed the ability of the Deschutes County labor supply to fill those jobs by half a percentage point.

Between February 2000, and February 2005, 1,076 new jobs appeared in Crook County, an increase of 15 percent. During the same five years, the number of Crook County residents seeking jobs grew 13.2 percent, meaning that Crook County employment outperformed the ability of the labor supply to fill those jobs by 1.8 percent.

By this measure, Crook County economic performance outshined the United States, Oregon and the Bend Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of Deschutes County. Regrettably, you probably haven’t read that fact in any mainstream media outlet.

Even assuming that 20 percent of the new jobs found by Crook County residents were commuter jobs in adjacent counties, the ability of the Crook County economy to keep page with phenomenal growth is impressive. That’s even more true when one considers that during the same period seven of Oregon’s 36 counties—all in Eastern Oregon—actually saw their civilian labor forces and their job counts shrink as well.

These numbers help explain why the issue of unemployment is such a knotty problem. Even while employers add job and opportunities at a record pace, the unemployment rate will continue to rise as long as the population seeking those jobs is rising faster. A

At the present rate of growth, regional employers have to add about 210 jobs for Crook County residents a year to keep pace. They seem to have done that. In the five-year period between February 2000 and February 2005, Crook County population grew 1076. Crook County-based employment during the same period increased by 1055, a difference of 21. With the creation of a little more than four more jobs per year on average, we would have kept pace with rising population. With the creation of just 5 more jobs per year, we would have seen slight erosion in the unemployment rate. That’s pretty astonishing when you remember that the last five years have marked by recession. It’s even more amazing, considering that many people suggest that when the U.S. economy catches a cold, Oregon gets the flu. (Given the variability of our local employment picture, Crook County must catch pneumonia.)

When people talk about the double-digit growth which has come to Crook County, concern about jobs is always near the top of their list of feared outcomes. “Where will all those people work?” they wonder.’’ It’s a fair question. Thirty years ago you could have asked the same question about Bend or Redmond. Imagine what a resident of one of those communities might have asked in 1970 if he or she could have known that the population would increase from 30,442 to 129,492 in 2003. Who could have blamed a resident might who asked, “Where will all those people work?”

The way things played out in the county next door has lessons for us today. Sometimes we forget that it was just 1950 when the primary economy of Deschutes County was timber products, and the population was 21,812. Compare that to Crook County today—with its wood products-dependent economy and its population of 20,600.The two communities, while separated by 50 years in time, are virtually identical.

Starting in 1950 from the essentially the same point that we are today, the growth rate in Deschutes County by decade starting in 1960, was 6 percent, 32 percent, 104 percent, 21 percent and 122 percent. In Crook County, our comparable growth rates were 4 percent, 6 percent, 31 percent, 8 percent, and 37 percent. Deschutes County absorbed tremendous growth and went through tremendous change in the composition of its basic industries. Yet, it survived and even prospered, and its job creation is even today outperforming its growth in civilian labor force. The same economic forces which have been at work in Deschutes County for the past 50 years are alive in well in Crook County today. Considering that history, the question of “Where will all those people work?” seems a bit less frightening.

There are experts in the State who can project the population of Crook County for the next 50 years. Those same experts weren’t terribly accurate in projecting Deschutes County’s growth. I suspect their estimates of the forces that will drive Crook County population numbers in the next 50 years aren’t particularly reliable either.

What I do know is that Crook County seems to bucking the trends: the trends of shrinking population, shrinking job base and an increasingly dismal unemployment picture in Eastern Oregon. Whether by design or by accident, whether by our own efforts or the good fortune to be located next door to an economic powerhouse, our changing community and changing economy is poised for success.

I’m as concerned as anyone else about “Where will all those people work?” But I take comfort in the fact that, so far, we’re doing a remarkably job as a community of managing that problem, and if history of our neighbors to the west is any guide, the future will likely take care of itself.

Perhaps its true: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”

Turn Out The Lights On Meth

By Crook County Judge Scott R. Cooper
Published, April 2005, in the Central Oregonian

Meth Is A Bigger Problem Than You Might Think

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed it is the only thing that ever has.”—Margaret Mead, anthropologist.

Mead’s quote was the unofficial theme of a dinner Friday night, which culminated a days worth of reflection and planning by citizens and local officials dedicated to a single goal: the interdiction and prevention of methamphetamine in abuse and distribution in Crook County. About 90 citizens participated in the day-long planning session. The people you would usually expect to be there—law enforcement officers, prosecutors, substance abuse counselors, social workers and educators--were all there. But so were business owners, motel operators, representatives of the faith community and community advocates. Many of them had spent the day in a planning session, mulling over strategies for ridding Crook County of the effects of this terribly addictive substance which has become the number one crime problem in America.

Despite the seriousness of the methamphetamine problem, many citizens know remarkably little about it. Certainly, they are not aware of facts like these, which were shared at the Methamphetamine Prevention Project success dinner Friday night:

Meth is so addictive that a single exposure can cause an individual to become addicted. A single hit of Meth is six times more powerful than a hit of cocaine.

In Oregon last year, 100 percent of the cases involving the termination of parental rights were somehow tied to meth abuse.

In the past 10 years, the federal government has spent in excess of $135 million combating meth abuse in Oregon alone.

The ingredients for making meth are so common that they can be assembled in any hardware store and cooked in any home microwave, making interdiction nearly impossible.

Meth is made from products such as rubbing alcohol, drain cleaner, camping fuel, paint thinner, lye and household batteries. Although most people would never ingest such items independently, an alarming number of people is willing to swallow them when they are cooked together and reduced to powered form.

Every pound of meth produced produces 5-7 pounds of toxic waste, much of which ends up in municipal sewer systems and which is extremely damaging to the environment.

Initially meth users feel an incredible surge of energy which can last for up to 12 hours. Over time, the amount of meth required to sustain a “high” increases. Meth users become increasingly desperate to obtain their drug of choice, and much of the petty crime which plagues communities is a direct result of desperate addicts stealing anything that can be converted to ready cash to get their next fix. Because Meth causers users to lose emotional control, they tend to become violent over time. In addition to property crimes, meth users are highly likely to commit crimes against persons. More than any other drug, meth is causing local jails and state and federal prisons to overflow, costing taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.

The recovery rate for meth addicts, even if they can find and afford a treatment program, is extremely low. Estimates are that 60 to 70 percent of addicts will not succeed in treatment, which can take over a year. Often three or four rounds of treatment is required to even have a hope of succeeding.

Such numbers are sobering. Yet most of us are still oblivious to the signs of methamphetamine addiction and production. The edgy, jittery neighbor next door, we dismiss as a crank. The blacked out windows, we attribute to paranoia. The coming and going at all hours, we assume is the result of an unhealthy lifestyle, without stopping to think it may be a meth addict running off nervous energy or on the prowl for easy money.

Not knowing the signs of meth is understandable and forgivable. Personally, I’ve only learned in the last few years how serious the problem is, what a meth problem looks like and how much a part meth plays in keeping the crime rate up. But once you’ve been educated about meth, then it’s unforgivable not to be willing to do something about it.

Enter the Methamphetamine Prevention Project, funded by the federal government through the Crook County Community Coalition, the Oregon Partnership and the Crook County Commission on Children and Families.

Using a federal grant just short of $200,000 The Methamphetamine Prevention Project is spreading the word through publications, through small neighborhood coffees, ice cream socials and pizza parties, about the dangers of meth and how to recognize a meth problem in the neighborhood. In doing so, it is creating a network of “reporters” to help law enforcement track the sources of this insidious drug. It is helping educate local retailers about how to spot a potential meth cook and cut off access to essential supplies. It is helping educate children and about the dangers of meth and to encourage them not to start (a very important goal, since nearly 6 percent of youngsters under the age of 18 report having tried the drug.)

The efforts of the project are paying off. A report from a narcotics detective at the meth prevention forum was that many meth “cooks” have starting going to neighboring counties to obtain supplies because many are no longer available in Prineville stores. An undercover operative reported that as recently as 18 months ago, he locally assembled everything he needed in single afternoon to create a portable meth lab, but when he attempted to repeat that experiment a month ago, the supplies simply weren’t available.

That’s the good news. The bad news is that the total usage of meth continues to rise in the U.S., in Oregon and in Crook County. Along with usage, costs to society and taxpayers are going up as well.

An ex-addict from Sister attending the meth prevention project dinner gave a compelling testimony of how meth destroyed his life, causing him to lose his marriage, multiple jobs and his children. He commended the Crook County effort, noting that purveyors and addicts alike will avoid a community when they know the community members are on the alert for them. He said he finally found his salvation from the grip of Meth when he turned to God, and concluded his remarks noting a Bible verse which reads, “Turn the light on the darkness, and the darkness will flee.”

His comments spoke eloquently and directly to the efforts of the Crook County Methamphetamine Prevention Project. This group is working hard to “Turn the lights on,” and rid our community of a menace to us all.

Editor’s note: for information about how you can get involved in Crook County’s Methamphetamine Prevention Project, call 447-3260.